Change is constant across all contexts, yet the pace and scale of transformation are increasingly rapid and disruptive. Strategic reflection helps us to better position ourselves as these shifts unfold, and it becomes even more meaningful when grounded in futures methodologies. These approaches help us anticipate the consequences of change and understand how emerging trends may shape the work of civil society organizations.
Against a backdrop of escalating violence in parts of the Global South, growing climate-related disasters, and the spread of regimes with authoritarian tendencies, the outlook for civil society action is deeply challenging. This reality requires us to continuously reassess both our capacities and our aspirations—clarifying what we can do, and what we ultimately hope to achieve as civil society organizations.
Tonatiuh Paz Aguilar, Senior Consultant at COMETA
What is the purpose of futures methodology in a strategic reflection process?
Recently at COMETA, we used the Anticipating Futures methodology to facilitate a strategic reflection process, exploring how it can complement other processes we support. This post shares several insights that may be useful for strengthening your own strategic reflection.
The Futures Methodology
The Solidarity Action Network (SANE) developed the Futures Methodology in 2022, toward the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. It’s part of a broader international initiative led by SANE aimed at strengthening the capacities of professionals working to defend and expand civil society’s operating space.
As part of this initiative, SANE mapped and convened diverse civil society actors from around the world in a collaborative scenario-building exercise. This process sought to:
1. develop a methodology for visualizing possible future scenarios,
2. identify which of these scenarios would be most critical for civil society work, and
3. generate viable strategies to help the sector respond effectively.
The scenarios developed through futures methodologies describe possible future conditions based on the information available to us today and what we anticipate may shape the future. By visualizing and naming these scenarios, we can better give structure to uncertainty and make it more tangible. This approach also helps address the emotional dimension of uncertainty, transforming it into a shared, collective vision by enabling organizations to assess what’s possible in the face of different futures. This makes it particularly valuable in difficult contexts characterized by high levels of political instability
The Value of Futures Methodology
Drawing on COMETA’s facilitation experience, futures methodology offers organizations the following:
- Engage in an imaginative process that helps visualize possible scenarios and anticipate long-term risks and disruptive changes (10 years and beyond);
- Identify trends—current dynamics that occur regularly and are likely to continue into the future—as well as less frequent events that nonetheless signal plausible shifts ahead;
- Shift the focus of analysis away from the present moment. Thinking about the future creates distance from recent events, allows space to process collective perceptions, and helps uncover opportunities even in adverse scenarios;
- Define strategies and advance narratives that enable organizations to act on those opportunities. Developing strategies and strengthening alternative narratives to dominant discourses can help redirect collective action toward a different—and more desirable—future.
How can we use futures methodologies in a strategic reflection process?
Futures methodologies can meaningfully complement other approaches to strategic reflection, such as Theory of Change (ToC), while also serving as a standalone framework for strategic thinking. Below, we outline a few ideas on how this methodology can be applied:
Four Ideas for Strategic Reflection Using Futures Methodology
- Analyze strengths, opportunities, weaknesses, and threats (SWOT) in relation to future scenarios. Visualizing possible futures can provide a strong foundation for internal reflection, helping organizations ask a critical question: How prepared are we to respond to different scenarios?
- Strengthen the foundations of a Theory of Change (ToC). Exploring long-term scenarios and identifying the most likely one can serve as a starting point for defining SMART objectives and mapping short- and medium-term impact pathways. Futures methodologies can also be used to test an existing ToC: by modeling scenarios over time and comparing them with organizational goals, teams can assess feasibility and make informed adjustments.
- Create a shared baseline within networks or multi-stakeholder groups. Because future scenarios have different implications for different actors, visualizing them collectively can help clarify priorities, align agendas, and explore how diverse stakeholders might position themselves in relation to a shared future. This process can also support the development of collective strategies with clearly defined medium-term outcomes.
- Support decision-making around institutional redesign. Futures methodologies can help organizations assess whether their current structures are equipped to address emerging internal and external challenges. Rather than focusing solely on long-term contextual trends, this approach can also be used to model organizational “futures”—helping teams envision the type of organization that needs to be built, adapted, or dismantled to navigate different scenarios. This kind of strategic reflection is especially valuable when organizations are operating under pressure or facing external threats.
“Reflecting to Move Beyond Shock”: Anticipating Is Not Predicting, Planning Is Not Controlling
The viability of the projections and plans we make about the future depends, to some extent, on a set of assumptions. Yet the reality is that the future cannot be predicted. The COVID-19 pandemic offered a powerful reminder of this: even though a global health crisis was a known possibility, when it happened, no one had clear answers, and adaptation became essential to keep moving forward.
While the conclusion may seem straightforward—contexts are constantly changing, and change requires adjustment—it’s important not to become resigned to this reality. Strategic reflection, based on anticipation and planning, helps organizations set a direction and stay oriented amid uncertainty. When we engage in these exercises, the adjustments we make aren’t about reacting blindly, but about fine-tuning our clarity around what we want to achieve and where we choose to focus our energy and efforts.
The following posts offer additional perspectives that may support your own strategic reflection process:
- How to Work the Strategic Vision in Civil Society
- The Key to Success for a Theory of Change
- Strategic Reflection Processes in a Closed Civic Space
At COMETA, we provide tailored support for strategic reflection processes adapted to the specific needs of each organization. Interested in learning more? Reach out to us at: hola@colectivometa.com
